Amazon’s new tablet, which was only recently announced officially, is being predicted as a smash hit if it can get released in time for the Christmas rush. Forrester Research is predicting that it will sell between 3 and 5 million units in Q4 2011, but there are some strings attached to that number. It assumes they can sell it with a sub-$300 price tag, and that they can release a (quality) product relatively soon. Then again, with content sales to bolster their overall tablet income stream, they might be able to afford to compete on up-front price more than any other Apple competitor to date.
Forrester Research has been expecting Amazon’s foray into the tablet arena for a long time now, so they might be a little biased here, but the fact that market research firms are holding up Amazon as the first legitimate Apple competitor is exciting. To date, competitor tablets have all been marketed as having better specs than the iPad; USB ports, flash support, faster processors, better video, and so on. Unfortunately, that means that the price goes up and the manufacturer’s margin goes down, and in the end, more people still chose the iPad. What the Amazon tablet can do differently is compete not on the basis of specs, but on the basis of being a better content consumption device than the iPad. This means better books, better music, better video, better browsing. Not better cameras, better connectivity or more memory. As Slate.com puts nicely, people don’t see the iPad as a PC replacement, they see it as a PC escape. It provides mobility and freedom for the content you consume most.
Amazon certainly can deliver on the content piece, too. Ebooks, cheaper MP3 music, and a growing video-on-demand library will appeal to those looking for a cheaper alternative to the iPad, both up-front and over time. We’ve already seen Amazon go head-to-head with iTunes on music prices, and if they really do release their tablet at a sub-$300 price point, they’ll be going head to head on hardware, too.
Besides, who really uses the iPad camera? Skype is neat and all, but I’ll be the first to admit that the only reason I would ever video chat is simply because the capability is there and not because I need it (we have to justify the iPad’s price tag somehow…). Here’s to an interesting Q4 2011.
